South Carolina did me in.
The only people who feel worse about it are local favorites Bryan New (87th at Murray) and Patrick Walters (75th at Santee), both of whom I determined were steel trap locks for greatness and installed on my teams. Sorry if I did you in too.
So what do you do for a slumpbuster? In past seasons of suckitude, I tried the Costanza methodology (“If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right”) with mixed results. At this point in time, I can’t pick up the writer’s equivalent of a shakey head and go for points – I have to be all-on on the glidah.
That’s tough at Lay, where there’s not really a Century Belt possibility. It’s also hard at this point on the calendar, because if the fish were almost done spawning in South Carolina, then they’re almost certainly closer to finito 460 miles to the west, yet they likely aren’t out doing summery things. With that in mind, I’m looking for anglers who can junk fish, cobble together a little something different, and find a pattern all their own. It doesn’t hurt if they bleed a little Coosa River, or something like it. Here are my choices:
BUCKET A: GASTON
MY PICK: This is sort of put-up-or-shut-up time for super rookie David Gaston, who has gotten better in every Elite event – from 44th to 34th to 31st to 12th. He’s one point out of the Rookie of the Year lead and in 12th overall in AOY. If there was ever a time to lock in that he’s a prohibitive favorite for ROY, it comes when he can sleep in his own bed.
RELIABLE BACKUP: Clent Davis fished collegiately at nearby Montevallo and likely has loads of experience on Lay. He’s too good to be fishing this poorly, and needs home cooking to get back on track.
BUCKET B: MOSLEY
MY PICK: With no Alabamians in this bucket, I’m going with the next best thing, Mississippi’s Brock Mosley, who started strong and struggled at Santee. He’s too good to remain at that level, and is more likely to finish in the top quartile than anywhere else – at least that’s what his track record says.
RELIABLE BACKUP: Matt Robertson has been On ‘Em for an increasing number of days each tournament since the Classic. If he can extend it one more, he can jump into the top 15 or 20 in AOY.
BUCKET C: SWINDLE
MY PICK: Gerald Swindle has lots of experience across Alabama, including multiple Classics, and there are few better junk fishermen in the field than him. One of those Classics ended up with an unfortunate DQ of his Day 2 catch, and it would be sweet to bring that full circle with a win.
RELIABLE BACKUP: After injecting himself into public consciousness at the 2022 Classic, Justin Hamner has been fairly quiet. He lives in the Tuscaloosa area, but a home state derby might be just what he needs to get back inside the Classic bubble.
BUCKET D: LOGAN
MY PICK: I typically don’t like the high percentage picks, but as I think I heard Ronnie Moore say, they’re high percentage for a reason. Wes Logan lives closer to Logan Martin and Neely Henry, but they’re Coosa River just the same, and he’s shown that home field advantage means something to him.
RELIABLE BACKUP: Josh Stracner lives close to the Coosa River chain, and needs to find a groove before the season ends. This would be a great opportunity to make that happen.
BUCKET E: DAVIS JR.
MY PICK: Will Davis Jr. stumbled a bit at Santee, not disastrously, but worse than what we’ve seen from him at just about every event. Now it’s time to get back in the check line, possibly with his best Elite finish yet. He’ll have to beat the 14th he earned at Okeechobee. If he wins, expect his dad’s bait business to blow up on a national scale.
RELIABLE BACKUP: If you think the youngster will struggle under the spotlight, consider Larry Nixon, who has yet to show his non-expired Hall of Fame credentials on the Elites. He finished 5th here in the 2002 Classic I’d love it if he won with an old school Texas rig.
Mercury Bassmaster Drain the Lake Challenge
• Clent Davis
• David Gaston
• Buddy Gross
• Justin Hamner
• Brandon Lester
• Gerald Swindle
• Joseph Webster
• Kyle Welcher